Over lunch with my friend Noel recently we discussed the takeover of diesel and petrol powered cars by electric vehicles. Noel was certain that internal combustion engine cars would be around for another 50 years. I’m pretty sure he is wrong. Stanford University economist Tony Seba predicted in a 2017 report that liquid fueled cars would be obsolete in 8 years. That’s 2025 for those of you who are mathematically challenged.* Volkswagen says 2026 will the their last year for petrol and diesel manufacture.**
Not only will petrol and diesel cars be obsolete but the network of service stations that sell liquid fuels will also begin to vanish. Electric cars have far fewer parts in their motors so maintenance is greatly reduced. Car mechanics will vanish just as TV repair shops have vanished.
The New Zealand government made a great mistake when they banned further oil exploration in New Zealand waters. All the ban accomplished is to piss off a whole lot of people. None of the available oil exploration permits had been taken up in the last two years because there is simply no future in oil. Why ban oil when it is dying all by itself.
Don’t wait for your current car to become obsolete. You don’t want to be one of the poor, dumb bastards left with a car you can’t even give away. My advice is to switch to electric by 2022. The average range for an electric car by then will be 442 kilometers ( 275 miles).*** Once the market for petrol and diesel cars begins to collapse, the rate of decline will accelerate as the bottom falls out of the market.
So what is the future of solar powered electric boats or even just plain old electric boats for that matter? While the electric boat market is almost non-existent right now, things will change rapidly once liquid fuels become scarce and battery performance improves.
So what about solar powered electric boats? We will have to wait and see how well the ESPcat performs before making trustworthy predictions on that one. As for an educated guess, I predict the ESPcat will be a fantastic success and everyone will love her. I could, of course, be mistaken, but I almost never am.
Testing of V3 solar generator continues.